Enrollment trends in New York’s public and charter schools reflect shifting demographics, birth rates, and family migration patterns that impact the demand for educational services across the state and city. This page covers CBC’s work on school enrollment data, per-student spending, school building utilization, capital planning, and the alignment of state and city education funding with student population changes.
This page was created with AICBC Insights uses AI to group, analyze and present data and recommendations from CBC's publications. Always reference the cited sources to verify important details..
Consider per-student spending and recognize that declining enrollment could yield flat or reduced total spending.
Diligently manage the impact of enrollment declines in individual schools with appropriate changes in funding and staffing to ensure the smoothest possible continuity and equity of services.
Identify priority programs funded by expiring federal pandemic aid and be transparent about whether the DOE plans to replace the one-time federal funds with recurring City and State resources or to shrink or end the programs.
Evaluate and modify DOE programs and initiatives to prioritize those that deliver maximum impact to the target populations.
Key Data
An April 2026 op-ed noted that the number of school-age children in New York City dropped by nearly 109,000 over the past decade as families left, did not arrive, or had fewer children.
In a March 2026 testimony, the CBC highlighted that between school years 2014-15 and 2023-24, NYC public school enrollment decreased by 163,046 students (17%), while charter school enrollment increased by 59,384 students (71%).
In March 2026, the CBC reported that for school year 2024-25, only 83.1% of children born in New York City six years prior enrolled in first grade, compared to 91.3% in school year 2014-15.
A March 2026 testimony highlighted that declining enrollment has left more school buildings severely underutilized, with 380 schools operating below 60% capacity in school year 2022-23, up from 187 schools in school year 2014-15.
According to a January 2025 report, New York State's public school enrollment declined 7.7% since school year 2012-13, dropping from 2.66 million to 2.45 million students.
New York City has seen a significant decline in the number of school-age children, with a drop of nearly 109,000 over the past decade. Consequently, traditional public school enrollment has fallen by 158,000, prompting calls to align school budgets with these lower enrollment figures to achieve savings.
Recommendations related to Enrollment Trends
The city should align school budgets with declining enrollment to save $400 million.
The city should seek relief from Albany’s class size mandate to unlock $1.2 billion while preserving smaller classes where they matter most.
Key Data
109,000
— The number of school-age children dropped by this amount in the past decade.
158,000
— The decline in traditional public school enrollment.
63,000
— The increase in charter school enrollment.
$400 million
— Potential savings from aligning school budgets with declining enrollment.
$42,000
— The amount the city Department of Education spends per student, which is twice the national average.
New York City public school enrollment has declined significantly due to falling birth rates and family outmigration, leading to increased underutilization of school buildings. To address this, the city should align school budgets with actual enrollment, consolidate underutilized schools, and seek relief from state-mandated class size requirements to optimize resources.
Recommendations related to Enrollment Trends
Fund schools based on actual enrollment and student need, which would save $400 million.
Merge schools whose enrollment has shrunk so much they require disproportionate administrative overhead, beginning with a close review of the 500 schools under 300 students.
Get relief from the State class size reduction mandate, which would save $1.2 billion.
Pause construction of new schools until administrative actions have been taken to increase utilization of existing schools.
Reestablish weighted student funding as the primary allocation method for school budgets.
Key Data
118,137
— Total enrollment, including public, private, charter schools, and home instruction, declined by 118,137 students (9 percent) between school years 2014–15 and 2023–24.
163,046
— Public school enrollment decreased by 163,046 (17 percent) between school years 2014-15 and 2023-24.
$400 million
— The amount the City would likely save annually if it were to resume funding schools based on the number and needs of the schools’ students.
$1.2 billion
— The amount the City could save annually if the State rescinded the class size reduction mandate.
380
— The number of schools that were below 60 percent capacity in school year 2022-23, up from 187 schools in school year 2014-15.
$870
— The cost per square foot for building new schools, which the City should stop doing for the time being.
Adjusting school funding to reflect declining enrollment could generate $400 million in savings for the city. This measure is part of a broader strategy to identify efficiencies and reduce spending within the municipal budget.
Recommendations related to Enrollment Trends
The City should save $400 million by adjusting school funding for declining enrollment.
Key Data
$400 million
— Savings identified by <b>adjusting school funding for declining enrollment</b>.
New York's statewide school enrollment has declined by 7.7 percent since the 2012-13 school year, falling from 2.66 million to 2.45 million students. This consistent decline, which accelerated during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, has contributed to a more rapid growth in per-student state aid compared to total state aid.
Key Data
7.7%
— Statewide enrollment decline since the 2012-13 school year.
2.66 million to 2.45 million
— The drop in the number of students from the 2012-13 school year to the current year.
132,532
— Total enrollment decline from the 2019-20 to 2021-22 school year.
Statewide school enrollment has declined by more than 9 percent, with 91 percent of districts experiencing drops, yet funding formulas often fail to adjust for these changes. The hold harmless provision currently protects districts from funding cuts despite declining student populations, leading to significant disparities in per-student aid.
Recommendations related to Enrollment Trends
Quickly phase-out the hold harmless provision to align Foundation Aid with district enrollment.
Key Data
9 percent
— Statewide enrollment decline since the implementation of Foundation Aid.
91 percent
— Percentage of school districts that have experienced enrollment declines.
40 percent
— Enrollment decline experienced by 17 districts since 2008.
30 percent
— Enrollment decline in the Shoreham-Wading River school district from 2008 to the current school year.
1 percent
— Enrollment increase in the Manhasset school district from 2008 to the current school year.
20 percent
— Enrollment increase in the Albany City School District since the introduction of Foundation Aid.
New York City's K-12 public school enrollment remains 10.4 percent below pre-pandemic levels, with 94,019 fewer students despite a projected slight increase between fiscal years 2023 and 2025. Consequently, per-student spending has climbed steadily to an expected $39,304 in fiscal year 2025, representing a 26.3 percent increase since fiscal year 2020.
Key Data
$39,304
— Per-student spending at K-12 DOE schools expected in fiscal year 2025.
26.3%
— Increase in per-student spending since fiscal year 2020.
104,374
— Number of fewer students between fiscal years 2020 and 2023.
10,355
— Projected increase in K-12 students between fiscal years 2023 and 2025.
10.4%
— Percentage K-12 DOE enrollment remains below pre-COVID levels.
94,019
— Number of fewer students compared to pre-COVID levels.
New York State's school aid is increasing significantly to a record $85 billion, despite a continued decline in student enrollment and projected future budget gaps. To improve fiscal stability and educational outcomes, the state should reallocate aid from wealthy districts that already meet basic funding requirements and implement a comprehensive performance management system to ensure spending drives results.
Recommendations related to Enrollment Trends
The State should reduce or reallocate aid to wealthy school districts to help stabilize the State’s ongoing finances and better target aid to high-need districts.
The State should have a comprehensive performance management system for school districts that uses robust metrics to track activities and results, identifies and spreads best practices, and appropriately holds districts accountable.
To balance the budget, the State should rein-in spending growth; poorly targeted school aid is a reasonable option for spending control.
The State should freeze or reduce aids to districts that already self-fund a Sound Basic Education, including by distributing expense-based aids based on need.
Key Data
$85 billion
— Total spending on elementary and secondary education for the 2023-24 school year.
$35,095
— Total spending per pupil for the 2023-24 school year.
8.8 percent
— Increase in State school aid for the 2023-24 school year.
$2.8 billion
— State aid provided to 152 school districts that already fully fund a Sound Basic Education with local and regular federal resources.
$11.4 billion
— Total funding provided to districts that exceeds what is needed to fund a Sound Basic Education.
$9.6 million
— The total revenue shortfall for the five districts statewide that lack adequate resources to provide a Sound Basic Education.
Between school years 2015-16 and 2021-22, New York City's K-12 public school enrollment declined by more than 141,000 students, with the largest losses of 90,000 students occurring during the pandemic. This trend of declining enrollment, coupled with rising per-student spending, necessitates that the city manage school funding and staffing adjustments to ensure service continuity and equity.
Recommendations related to Enrollment Trends
Consider per-student spending and recognize that declining enrollment could yield flat or reduced total spending.
Diligently manage the impact of enrollment declines in individual schools with appropriate changes in funding and staffing to ensure the smoothest possible continuity and equity of services.
Identify priority programs funded by expiring federal pandemic aid and be transparent about whether the DOE plans to replace the one-time federal funds with recurring City and State resources or to shrink or end the programs.
Evaluate and modify DOE programs and initiatives to prioritize those that deliver maximum impact to the target populations.
Key Data
141,000
— Number of students by which K-12 DOE enrollment declined between school years 2015-16 and 2021-22.
90,000
— Number of students lost during the pandemic, representing the largest portion of the total enrollment decline.
12,800
— Average number of students by which K-12 DOE school enrollment declined annually between school years 2015-16 and 2019-20.
45,000
— Average number of students lost per year during school years 2020-21 and 2021-22.
18.5%
— Annual growth rate of special education students receiving reimbursements for private school tuition, known as Carter Cases, between school years 2015-16 and 2021-22.
3,000
— Average annual number of New York City students enrolled in K-12 private schools that declined between school years 2015-16 and 2021-22.
New York City's K-12 schools have experienced a significant decline in enrollment, losing over 141,000 students between the 2015-16 and 2021-22 school years. This trend, accelerated by the pandemic, has contributed to a rapid increase in per-student spending, which is projected to reach $41,069 by fiscal year 2026.
Recommendations related to Enrollment Trends
Consider spending levels per student rather than aggregate level and recognize that declining enrollment could yield flat or reduced total spending.
Identify priority programs funded by expiring federal COVID-19 pandemic aid and be transparent about whether the City plans to replace the one-time federal funds with recurring City and State resources or shrink or end the programs.
Evaluate DOE programs and initiatives to ensure that they are delivering maximum impact to the target populations and modify programs accordingly.
Key Data
141,000
— Number of students lost by K-12 DOE schools between school years 2015-16 and 2021-22.
2.6 percent
— Annual rate of decrease in K-12 student enrollment between school years 2015-16 and 2021-22.
90,000
— Number of students lost during the 2020-21 and 2021-22 school years, representing the largest decline.
$37,000
— Amount spent per K-12 DOE student in fiscal year 2022.
$41,069
— Projected per-student spending by fiscal year 2026, assuming continued enrollment declines.
$44,000
— Projected per-student spending by fiscal year 2026 if tentative District Council 37 raises are extended to all DOE employees.
State school aid increased by 6.7 percent to $34.4 billion for the 2022-23 school year, while per-pupil aid rose by 9.4 percent due to declining enrollment. Meanwhile, $3.1 billion in state aid is directed to wealthy districts that can already support a Sound Basic Education, alongside $10.4 billion in excess aid to other districts.
Key Data
6.7 percent
— The increase in total State school aid from the previous year.
$32.2 billion
— The amount of State school aid in the previous year.
$34.4 billion
— The amount of State school aid in the 2022-23 school year.
9.4 percent
— The increase in per-pupil State aid resulting from declining enrollment.
$3.1 billion
— The amount of State aid directed to 176 wealthy districts that can fully support a Sound Basic Education.
$10.4 billion
— The amount of State aid provided to other districts in excess of the Sound Basic Education level.
118,997 is the number of students enrolled in charter schools in NYC in 2019. That enrollment has grown 66 percent since 2014 and applications continue to surpass the number of available seats. James Merriman, CEO of the New York City Charter School Center, joined the pod to discuss the politics,…
New York State's education funding formula fails to adequately account for student enrollment and local wealth, resulting in inequitable distribution of resources across school districts. Reforming the Foundation Aid formula to incorporate current data on enrollment and local funding is essential to ensure all students receive a sound basic education.
Recommendations related to Enrollment Trends
Poorly targeted forms of school aid, including High Tax, Library, Textbook, and Software Aids, should be folded into a reformed Foundation Aid formula that uses current data—including actual local funding and student enrollment.
The arbitrary floors, ceilings, phase-ins and add-ons to the Foundation Aid formula should be eliminated, as these limit aid growth regardless of change in enrollment or need.
Key Data
46%
— Per pupil revenue increase in New York City, which is less than the 61% increase in total revenue due to enrollment growth.
61%
— Total revenue increase in New York City, which is higher than the 46% per pupil revenue increase due to enrollment growth.
39%
— Per pupil revenue increase in the rest of the state, which resulted from aggregate declines in enrollment.
28%
— Total revenue increase in the rest of the state, which is lower than the 39% per pupil revenue increase due to aggregate declines in enrollment.
20%
— Per pupil State aid increase in New York City, which is equal to inflation.
New York City's school system faces persistent crowding despite billions in capital investments, as enrollment growth and policy decisions offset the creation of new seats. To address this, the city should shift from relying solely on new construction to implementing operational strategies like rezoning and better space utilization, particularly in elementary schools.
Recommendations related to Enrollment Trends
The Department of Education should continue and increase its rezoning efforts to balance enrollment across buildings and shift students from crowded districts into schools with available space.
The proposed five-year capital plan should be revised to focus on elementary schools, where crowding is highest, and to limit new capacity to those neighborhoods where operational strategies are not sufficient to address crowding.
Programs that attract many out-of-zone applicants, such as bilingual schools and gifted and talented programs, should be sited in underutilized buildings to attract enrollment away from crowded schools.
The city should implement operational strategies directed at improving the efficiency of space usage within buildings, reducing intake in crowded buildings, and shifting enrollment to underutilized buildings.
Grade extensions and truncations should be considered, such as by shifting fifth grade students to a middle school building with surplus capacity.
Key Data
57%
— Percentage of elementary schools that exceed their capacity.
10,400
— Number of fewer seats than there are students in elementary schools citywide.
55,000
— Citywide surplus of seats in DOE school buildings as of the 2016-2017 school year.
21,500
— Shortage of seats in Queens, where the crowding problem is most acute.
98,000
— Number of seats constructed since 2005 using $9.1 billion in funding.
$17 billion
— Total value of the proposed Department of Education Capital Plan for fiscal years 2020-2024.
The state's current school aid distribution formulas fail to account for shifting enrollment trends, resulting in wealthier districts receiving disproportionate funding increases compared to high-need areas. Reforming these formulas to incorporate actual enrollment data and eliminating minimum aid guarantees would ensure resources are directed toward districts with the greatest financial and educational needs.
Recommendations related to Enrollment Trends
The State should reform the Foundation Aid formula to account for changes in enrollment to ensure the highest needs districts are properly funded without unnecessarily sending aid to the wealthiest districts.
The State should reform the formula to address the flaws that distort the total distribution of $17.5 billion in Foundation Aid, specifically by incorporating enrollment trends into the distribution calculations.
The State should eliminate the minimum increase per district, which perpetuates needless spending growth regardless of enrollment changes or financial need.
Key Data
0.4%
— Average enrollment growth in the highest-needs school districts.
0.9%
— Average enrollment decline in the wealthiest school districts.
1.8%
— Average aid increase per pupil in the higher-need half of districts.
1.1%
— Average aid increase per pupil in the wealthier half of districts.
New York City's school construction planning often directs new seats to districts with declining enrollment while ignoring areas with the highest need. By better utilizing existing space and aligning new construction with actual enrollment trends, the city could significantly reduce overcrowding without unnecessary capital expenditure.
Recommendations related to Enrollment Trends
The city should maximize the use of existing capacity by shifting students to different schools or moving schools to different buildings to alleviate crowding.
The city should target new capacity to areas with the highest need rather than constructing new capacity where it is less needed.
Steps should be taken to match student enrollment to space across the 21 districts that currently have available capacity.
The city should prioritize new school sites in already-crowded areas, as constructing new capacity without redistributing students from crowded schools is an inefficient use of capital funds.
Key Data
785
— Number of public school buildings that were overcrowded as of the 2015-2016 school year.
104,717
— Number of students over capacity in overcrowded public school buildings.
46,000
— Number of seats of extra capacity available citywide.
44 percent
— Projected drop in enrollment by the end of the capital plan for District 13 in Brooklyn.
25 percent
— Share of new seats in the capital plan located in districts that are currently under capacity and projected to decline in enrollment.
$251 million
— Cost to fund more than 2,500 new seats in District 13, where enrollment is projected to drop.
New York City public schools possess 52,000 seats of extra capacity citywide, yet 109,278 students are enrolled in 784 buildings that exceed their capacity. Rather than relying solely on new construction, the city should prioritize space management solutions, such as shifting students or moving schools, to address crowding more efficiently.
Recommendations related to Enrollment Trends
Policymakers should prioritize space management solutions that take advantage of existing unused space to address crowding.
The city should consider shifting students to different schools or moving schools to different buildings to address crowding faster and without unnecessary capital expenditure.
The Department of Education should focus on solutions that adequately meet the needs of the 1 million students in the city’s public school system rather than relying solely on new construction.
Key Data
52,000
— seats of extra capacity available citywide in public school buildings.
109,278
— students enrolled in 784 school buildings that are over capacity.
161,336
— unfilled seats available in other school buildings.
38,463
— needed school seats left unfunded by the 2015-2019 Capital Plan.
53%
— of identified school capacity needs funded by the 2015-2019 Department of Education Capital Plan.
70%
— of elementary school students who are in crowded school buildings.
Between the 2001-02 and 2011-12 school years, public school enrollment statewide declined by 3.5 percent, while the number of children receiving special education services increased by 27 percent. This divergence, coupled with a 91 percent rise in children receiving multiple services, drove expenditures for these programs up 73 percent to $1.37 billion.
Recommendations related to Enrollment Trends
The state should require that every provider be audited at least once by the State Comptroller by March 31, 2018 to reduce fraud and abuse.
Legislation should require Executive Directors of providers be fully engaged and qualified for their positions to improve oversight.
The state should require a school district's Committee on Preschool Special Education (CPSE) to consent in writing whenever the same program provider conducts the evaluation and also provides services to avoid potential conflicts of interest.
The State Education Department should complete a study of alternative reimbursement methodologies and monitoring protocols to identify further reforms.
Legislation should require that all providers in the program should be audited and that agency management must be qualified, on-site and full time.
Key Data
3.5 percent
— The decline in public school enrollment statewide from school year 2001-02 to 2011-12.
27 percent
— The increase in the number of children receiving special education services from school year 2001-02 to 2011-12.
63,509 to 83,038
— The change in the number of children receiving special education services from school year 2001-02 to 2011-12.
91 percent
— The increase in the number of preschoolers receiving more than one authorized service over the decade ending in 2011-12.
73 percent
— The growth in expenditures for special education services from school year 2001-02 to 2011-12.
$1.37 billion
— The total expenditure for special education services in school year 2011-12.
New York's prekindergarten enrollment has grown significantly over the last decade, peaking at 47 percent of four-year-olds in 2010 before declining to 44 percent in 2012. Despite this growth, the state's per-pupil spending has failed to keep pace with inflation, falling 30 percent between 2002 and 2012, which has hindered the goal of achieving true universality.
Recommendations related to Enrollment Trends
New York’s leaders should avoid underfunding services for those students who could benefit most for the sake of achieving universality.
New York should prioritize investments in high quality pre-k that deliver the best long-term returns when they are made in intensive, high-quality programs for disadvantaged children.
New York’s leaders should review the history of such efforts and take stock of some key realities before raising public expectations.
Key Data
44 percent
— Share of four-year-olds enrolled in state-funded pre-k in 2012.
47 percent
— Peak enrollment of four-year-olds in New York State in 2010.
103,573
— Enrollment of students in New York State pre-k programs in 2011-12.
28 percent
— U.S. average enrollment of four-year-olds in state-funded pre-k in 2012.
18,176
— First year enrollment in the Universal Pre-k program in 1998-99.
230,000
— Estimated number of four-year-olds in New York State.
Many New York school districts maintain small student populations, with over 200 districts serving fewer than 900 students, which could be consolidated to achieve significant savings through economies of scale. Furthermore, outdated state aid formulas often fail to account for declining enrollment, such as the 22% drop seen in Albion, preventing districts from closing schools to reduce expenses.
Recommendations related to Enrollment Trends
Consolidating districts with enrollment below 300 or 900 would result in 7% to 20% savings through economies of scale.
Districts with falling enrollment should close schools to reduce expenses.
State aid formulas should be adjusted to reflect actual enrollment counts to avoid inefficiencies.
Key Data
40
— Number of school districts in New York State with enrollment below 300.
200
— Number of school districts in New York State with enrollment below 900.
7% to 20%
— Potential savings from consolidating small school districts through economies of scale.
554
— Number of pupils by which enrollment has dropped in the Albion school district since 2006.
22%
— Percentage decrease in enrollment in the Albion school district since 2006.
The post discusses the distribution of state school aid, noting that while 123 districts saw enrollment increases and 552 saw decreases, these shifts are only one factor in the flawed aid formulas. It focuses on how aid reductions and proposed increases are allocated across school districts based on wealth and need rather than enrollment trends.
Key Data
123
— Number of school districts that experienced an increase in enrollment.
552
— Number of school districts that experienced a decrease in enrollment.
60
— Number of school districts where enrollment decreases were a substantial 10 percent or more.
New York City public schools face significant overcrowding, with 469 schools exceeding capacity while others have a combined surplus of over 72,000 seats. Implementing strategies like rezoning school districts and adopting year-round education schedules could create enough capacity to meet long-term needs without relying on expensive and slow new construction projects.
Recommendations related to Enrollment Trends
New York City should adopt new zoning policies to better balance capacity and demand, as unused capacity at under-utilized schools far exceeds the excess enrollment at crowded schools.
The school system should implement year-round education (YRE), which spreads the 180-day school calendar over the entire year to increase building capacity by one-third.
Officials should pursue reconfiguration of grades across schools, such as shifting ninth-grade students from overcrowded high schools to middle schools that have surplus capacity.
The city should prioritize using existing facilities wisely rather than spending billions on avoidable new construction that delays providing adequate space for students.
Policymakers should impose tighter limits on the number of students that can enroll in desirable, 'good' schools to help alleviate overcrowding in high schools that enroll competitively.
Key Data
72,000
— Surplus capacity of seats available citywide across schools with enrollments below their capacity.
136,430
— Number of seats available as unused capacity at under-utilized schools.
64,231
— Number of students representing excess enrollment at crowded schools.
216,000
— Long-term shortage of school seats identified by the Campaign for Fiscal Equity.
1,268,574
— Total student capacity available if year-round education and rezoning are fully implemented.
$14.7 billion
— Estimated cost in 2003 dollars needed to provide New York City students with the facilities required for a sound basic education.
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